The Latest Observations: Good News, Bad News, iPhone 14 Delays and Emancipation

Looking out from the Observation Deck on this gorgeous Tuesday, we see good news and not-so-good news on the Apple front. Wait times are persisting and growing for certain iPhone 14 models, and Apple TV+ sets a release date for historical drama Emancipation. Oh, and can you name more songs on Apple Music than me?
Wait Times Persist for iPhone 14 Pros and Grow for iPhone 14 Plus
Far be it from me to argue with the late, great, Tom Petty — but waiting is easy. A lot of times, there’s really nothing else you can do. The song might more accurately say “The waiting is the annoyingest part,” though it’s not terribly melodic, plus — the little red line in Pages tells me that “annoyingest” is not actually a word. 
Whatever. 
Waits are lengthening for iPhones. Not all iPhones, but more than the world expected a week ago. Cult of Mac has been poking around Apple orders. Their finding — going for either iPhone 14 Pro or iPhone 14 Pro Max means maybe not getting your new phone until November. 
Checking myself, had I ordered an unlocked, 128GB Deep Purple iPhone 14 Pro on Monday, I’d be looking at delivery between 26 October and 2 November. Do the same again with and iPhone 14 Pro Max and the dates stretch a week, landing in my hands between 2 November and 9 November. 
Back to the Cult, that site has also poked into the iPhone 14 Plus queue. I told you yesterday that my check of Apple’s site showed orders for Apple’s biggest phone at the consumer end starting to slip in the states. Since pre-orders began, iPhone 14 Plus has shown delivery available on the model’s release date — this Friday 7 October. My check over the weekend showed that delivery had started to slip. Had I ordered Sunday, Apple was showing delivery running between 11 October and 13 October. Cult of Mac spotted the same wait Monday, according to its report. 
JP Morgan Survey Shows Several Pockets of Strength for iPhone
JP Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee is out with some really interesting iPhone numbers. Apple 3.0 ran part of a note he wrote, which had a stack of good news from Apple’s perspective. Pulling points from Chatterjee’s survey of 500+ people in the US, UK, and China:

Intent to upgrade is up this year compared to last, with 75% of current iPhone owners planning to do so vs. last year’s 65%

While the number of people intending to switch to iPhone is about the same as last year, what they’re dropping and what they’re looking for is interesting. What they’re dropping is Samsung and Huawei, according to Chatterjee’s survey. What they’re looking for is 5G. Besides that, the piece says, “Drivers of upgrade are less specific this year” 

The phones folks find most interesting are iPhone 14 Pro Max and (surprisingly) iPhone 13. Chatterjee says that’s true among both switchers and upgraders. The 13 is doing better this year than the 12 did last year, according to the survey likely thanks to economic uncertainty. The analyst says he and his “conclude that more price sensitive customers are looking to opt for iPhone 13 rather than the more expensive iPhone 14/14 Plus…”

On Apple Watch, folks looking to upgrade from an older Apple Watch or split between Apple Watch Series 8 and Apple Watch Ultra. As for folks considering their first Apple Watch, Chatterjee says two-thirds are looking to the Series 8.

Chatterjee says, “Reasons not to buy are expectedly ‘price…’” That’s the primary reason holdouts are holding out on both iPhone and Apple Watch, according to the survey. 

Mr. Chatterjee has an “Overweight” rating on Apple shares. He’s set JP Morgan’s price target on the shares at $200.
iOS 16.0.3 Spotted in MacRumors Analytics Logs
Annoyances in iOS 16.0.2 should be a thing of the past, soon — that’s the word from MacRumors. It’s not that they’ll be gone, necessarily. Any that remain though will be annoyances of iOS 16.0.3. According to the site:
Evidence of an upcoming iOS 16.0.3 software update has shown up in MacRumors analytics logs, which have been a reliable indicator in the past.
Bugs that users might hope to see squished include:

an issue with low volume on CarPlay calls using iPhone 14 Pro
display flickering on some iPhones when the brightness is turned down
a Mail crashing vulnerability
a problem editing Cinematic Mode videos shot on iPhone

And the list goes on. Remember kids, it’s not just you…
There’s no official indication as to when Apple might release the li’l bug killer. MacRumors expects it’ll be this week or next, with iOS 16.1 also expected this month. 
iPhone 6 Hits Apple’s Vintage List
As new models fill the hearts, minds, palms, and cases of iPhone users, pour one out for a giant of the line. Cult of Mac says iPhone 6 has hit Apple’s vintage list. 
iPhone 6 was notable for a few reasons — both good and bad. On the bad side, “bendgate.” The Cult says that model “was one of the largest phones ever from Apple, and was more prone to being accidentally bent” than its predecessors. On the good said, the piece says iPhone 6 was Apple’s “answer to those wanting a larger display…” It took the display from 4-inches to 4.7-inches, and took iPhone sales  through the roof. Now, five-years after leaving Apple’s line-up, it hits the vintage list.
“Not dead,” but “not at all well,” as Monty Python might say. If you’re rockin’ an iPhone 6, you can still get it worked on by Apple — provided Apple has the parts to keep it working. 
Morgan Stanley Notes Drop in App Store Sales in September
For a good bit of the summer, Evercore analyst Amit Daryanani tracked declining sales in Apple’s App Store. Now picking up the theme is Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring. CNBC ran a piece Monday that had Katy Huberty’s Apple following replacement saying App Store revenue fell in September as people slowed down on the game spending. That is the biggest drop for App Store revenue since Morgan Stanley started tracking that in 2015. It’s likely the biggest drop ever. Evercore’s Daryanani said in September that the decline in App Store revenue he spotted in August was the first ever decline since the store opened in 2008. As for last month’s decline, Woodring says
We believe the recent App Store results make clear that the global consumer has somewhat de-emphasized App Store spending in the near-term as discretionary income is reallocated to areas of pent-up demand…
Bad news for the App Store and some developers, though Apple’s Services segment is expected to grow despite the lack of App sales. CNBC says “Morgan Stanley expects Apple’s total services revenue to show an 8% increase in the September quarter.” The piece points out that subscriptions and AppleCare also turn up under Apple’s Services segment.
Apple CEO Tim Cook Gets Private Audience with Pope Francis
Boy, Tim Cook is seeing all the sights on his trip through the UK and Europe. Battersea Park… AFC Richmond… the Pope… 
I’d love to meet Tim Cook’s travel agent. 
CNET says Apple’s CEO met Pope Francis in Vatican City. Mr. Cook was granted a private audience with the pontiff. “…as is customary,” the piece says, “the Vatican did not disclose what was discussed during the private meeting,” so I think we should make up what they talked about.
CNET linked to a Yahoo! Finance piece that had the Pope complaining about the prevalence of smartphones over personal communication a few years ago. It’s possible they talked about that. I like to think he was having trouble with his iPhone, called Apple, then asked to speak to the manager, then asked to speak to their manager, then eventually got to Tim. 
Maybe the Pope has an idea for an app.
Fell free to take a turn, by the way: info@macosken.com. 
AppleTV+ Film ‘Emancipation’ Gets Screening and Release Dates
So it looks like Apple is going for it with the Antoine Fuqua/Will Smith historical drama Emancipation. Not only did the film get its first official screening last weekend, it’s got a couple of release dates.
A piece from The Mac Observer says the screening took place on Saturday in Washington, D.C. It was presented during the Congressional Black Caucus Foundation’s 51st Annual Legislative Conference. 
For those who’ve forgotten, the film — based on a true story — follows Peter, a runaway enslaved person in search of his family. “Eventually,” TMO says:
…Peter joins the Union Army. It was during a medical examination when doctors discovered the scars on Peter’s back, which he had suffered at the hands of [a plantation] overseer. Peter’s scars were photographed and published by The Independent, noting the cruelty and barbarity of slavery in America.
The film seemed a shoe-in for Oscar season — at least until last year’s Oscars. That’s when Smith took the stage and slapped Chris Rock after the comedian made a joke about Smith’s wife, Jada Pinkett Smith. The internationally televised slap left some wondering what Apple would do about releasing the film. Now, it looks like Apple is going for it. 
In addition to the screening, which featured a discussion with director Fuqua and leading man Smith, Apple has set a release schedule for the film — and yes, it seems to be setting up for awards season. Apple TV+ posted a trailer for the film on Twitter on Monday. It also posted release plans. Those include a run in theaters starting on 2 December, followed by the film’s streaming premier on 9 December. The website ScreenDaily says a theatrical release among six major metros in the U.S. is once again required for Oscar eligibility. 
Apple Music Celebrates 100 Million Songs; Announces New Show
And finally today — Apple Music says it is host to 100 million song. How many can you name?!?
While that would be an awesome contest, it’s not one Apple is running. Rather, Apple issued a press release celebrating that number: 100 million songs. The company points out that when the iPod first premiered, it was practically unimaginable that you could have “1,000 songs in your pocket.” Now, provided have an Apple Music subscription, you’ve got 100,000,000 songs in your pocket. “One hundred million songs,” says the release:
…it’s a number that will continue to grow and exponentially multiply. But it’s more than just a number, representing something much more significant — the tectonic shift in the business of music making and distribution over these past two decades.
The release makes mention of Apple Music’s human curation and the important role it continues to play. The company also used the release to announce the new Apple Music Today series. Every day, the release says, Apple Music will pick a new song and dive into its history… 
Eight, by the way. I can name eight songs.
Tags: Apple, Apple TV+, iPhone 14