A Hospital Algorithm Designed To Predict a Deadly Condition Misses Most Cases

Epic Systems' algorithm for identifying signs of sepsis, an often deadly complication from infections that can lead to organ failure, doesn't work as well as advertised, according to a new study published in JAMA Internal Medicine. The Verge reports: Epic says its alert system can correctly differentiate patients who do and don't have sepsis 76 percent of the time. The new study found it was only right 63 percent of the time. An Epic spokesperson disputed the findings in a statement to Stat News, saying that other research showed the algorithm was accurate. Sepsis is hard to spot early, but starting treatment as soon as possible can improve patients' chances of survival. The Epic system, and other automated warning tools like it, scan patient test results for signals that someone could be developing the condition. Around a quarter of US hospitals use Epic's electronic medical records, and hundreds of hospitals use its sepsis prediction tool, including the health center at the University of Michigan, where study author Karandeep Singh is an assistant professor.

The study examined data from nearly 40,000 hospitalizations at Michigan Medicine in 2018 and 2019. Patients developed sepsis in 2,552 of those hospitalizations. Epic's sepsis tool missed 1,709 of those cases, around two-thirds of which were still identified and treated quickly. It only identified 7 percent of sepsis cases that were missed by a physician. The analysis also found a high rate of false positives: when an alert went off for a patient, there was only a 12 percent chance that the patient actually would develop sepsis. Part of the problem, Singh told Stat News, seemed to be in the way the Epic algorithm was developed. It defined sepsis based on when a doctor would submit a bill for treatment, not necessarily when a patient first developed symptoms. That means it's catching cases where the doctor already thinks there's an issue. 'It's essentially trying to predict what physicians are already doing,' Singh said. It's also not the measure of sepsis that researchers would ordinarily use.

Read more of this story at Slashdot.