Apple analysts have a long history of misreading weak iPhone demand based on supplier rumors

“Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: An Apple analyst cuts iPhone shipment estimates based on weak supplier guidance, sendingthe company’s stock tumbling,” Sara Salinas reports for CNBC. “That’s the situation Apple was in Monday. Shares fell 5 percent, leading the overall market to painful declines, after iPhone supplier Lumentum cut its outlook.”
“The regular concerns around iPhone demand have become close to routine for Apple as global smartphone sales slow and upgrade cycles grow longer,” Salinas reports. “Apple beats consensus estimates for shipments anyway most quarters.”
I would suggest it’s good to question the accuracy of any kind of rumor about build plans and also stress that even if a particular data point were factual, it would be impossible to accurately interpret the data point as to what it meant for our overall business because the supply chain is very complex. And we obviously have multiple sources for things, yields might vary, supplier performance can vary, the beginning inventory positions can vary. I mean, there’s just an inordinate long list of things that would make any single data point not a great proxy for what’s going on. – Apple CEO Tim Cook, 2013
Salinas reports, “If history is any guide, analysts and investors tend to get unnecessarily spooked over one-off iPhone supplier rumors, just to be proven wrong after Apple discloses sales.”
Read more in the full article here.
MacDailyNews Take: Same as it ever was.
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