MacBook shipments expected to decline by approximately 30% YoY – Ming-Chi Kuo

TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo expects MacBook shipments to decline by approximately 30% YoY to about 17 million units in 2023.
Apple’s current 13.6-inch M2 MacBook Air in Starlight
Ming-Chi Kuo via Medium:
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Demand for the new 15-inch MacBook Air dropped significantly after the back-to-school (BTS) period, with shipment forecasts revised downward by about 20% or more this year.
MacBook shipments are expected to decline by approximately 30% YoY to about 17 million units in 2023.
There are no new products in 4Q23, and MacBook shipment momentum will be significantly lower than in past peak seasons. The key to no new products is that Apple needs to clear inventory and reformulate new product and marketing strategies for 2024.
Current challenges for the MacBook include declining work-from-home (WFH) demand and the potential waning consumer appeal of Apple’s silicon and mini-LED.
Apple expects the M3 processor to boost MacBook shipments in 2024, but it remains to be seen whether this strategy will be effective.

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MacDailyNews Take: The appeal of Apple Silicon is not waning (and nobody, meaning the vast majority of MacBook buyers, much cares about the display technology; MacBook displays are already, and have long been, stellar. The release of the M3 processor family will boost MacBook shipments in 2024.
The issue here, as anybody who watches the company even somewhat closely and as anyone who isn’t trying to manufacture negative sentiment knows, is simply an exceedingly tough YoY compare, as Apple executives already explained back in August:
[W]e expect the revenue for both Mac and iPad to decline by double digits year-over-year due to difficult compares, particularly on the Mac. For both products, we experienced supply disruptions from factory shutdowns in the June quarter a year ago and were able to fulfill significant pent-up demand in the year ago September quarter… [F]or Mac and iPad, we expect to decline double digits. And the reason for that is that we have a very difficult compare versus last year. You remember that a year ago, in the June quarter, we had factory shutdowns for both Mac and iPad. And so we were able to fill the pent-up demand from those shutdowns during the September quarter. So an unusual level of activity that we had a year ago. And so now, obviously, the compare is difficult. So we expect both iPad and Mac to be down double digits. — Apple CFO Luca Maestri, August 3, 2023
As always, profit from disinformation and use blatant fomenting to your advantage.
Update, 10/18/23, 11:16am EDT:

It's so easy to tell when you've hit the target. pic.twitter.com/0wlFwox7Ya
— MacDailyNews (@MacDailyNews) October 18, 2023

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