Shock report: The foldable market really needs Apple to make a folding iPhone

Macworld

A gloomy new report on the state of the foldable phones market contains one chink of light: Apple is expected to save the day in 2026.

Ross Young, a well-known and impressively accurate analyst, published a report earlier this week entitled Foldable Smartphone Market Stalls in 2024 and 2025. As the name suggests, the report is pessimistic about the sector’s mid-term prospects, noting that it saw 40 percent growth in 2023 but predicting that it will grow just 5 percent in 2024 and then shrink by 4 percent in 2025.

Young cites various reasons for the stagnation. One is that the foldables market is dominated by just two brands, Samsung and Huawei, with other companies such as Google and OnePlus, barely making a dent in sales.

“No third player has emerged to take on Huawei and Samsung,” Young writes. “The two companies have combined for a 70% share of panel procurement in 2023 and 2024, and that share is likely going to increase in 2025 as a number of Chinese brands scale back their foldable efforts… Some smartphone brands are discontinuing their clamshell efforts due to lack of price elasticity, limited margins, modest sales, and overheating concerns.”

Another factor is the regionality of demand, with sales of Samsung handsets in particular relatively strong in Korea and Europe but struggling in China and the U.S. But this could all change if Apple (which is obviously very influential in the smartphone space) gets involved in foldables–and Young expects this to happen in 2026.

“There is reason for optimism,” Young explains. “Apple is expected to enter the foldable market in 2H’26 and given [its] dominant position in flagship smartphones could generate significant growth for the foldable smartphone market. Any improvement in form factor, functionality, use cases, durability, etc. could drive new demand for this market.”

So confident is the analyst in the positive effects of Apple’s imminent entry to the market that he predicts 2026 will see 30% growth and record revenue, and that there will be 20% growth in 2027 and 2028.

Apple watchers have been speculating for years about the first foldable iPhone, and it’s never been entirely clear that the company wants to join this market. (One of my colleagues has argued that it won’t and another has insisted that it must.) As clearly explained in Young’s report, the foldables market has an uncertain future, and Apple generally prefers to hold back until it knows a market is worth pursuing.

On the other hand, with the market leaders struggling, the time could be ripe for Apple to swoop in with the perfect foldable and scoop up all the potential revenue. For all the latest news and rumors, check our foldable iPhone superguide.