Morgan Stanley Cuts iPhone Shipment Forecast on Siri Upgrade Delay, China Tariffs

Morgan Stanley has reduced its iPhone shipment forecasts after Apple confirmed the delay of a more advanced Siri personal assistant, dampening prospects for accelerating phone upgrades. The investment bank now predicts 230 million iPhone shipments in 2025 (flat year-over-year) and 243 million in 2026 (up 6%), down from previous estimates.

An upgraded Siri was the most sought-after Apple Intelligence feature among prospective buyers, according to the bank's survey data. 'Access to Advanced AI Features' appeared as a top-five driver of smartphone upgrades for the first time, with about 50% of iPhone owners who didn't upgrade to iPhone 16 citing the delayed Apple Intelligence rollout as affecting their decision. The firm also incorporated headwinds from China tariffs in its assessment, noting Apple is unlikely to fully offset these costs without broader exemptions.

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