Analysts see rising odds for Apple to secure U.S. tariff exemptions

President Trump speaks with Tim Cook at an American Workforce Policy Advisory Board meeting in March 2019. (photo: Al Drago/Bloomberg News)
Wall Street analysts and investors are growing more optimistic that Apple might dodge President Trump’s U.S. import tariffs on China, betting on a potential exemption for the Mac maker. Fueled by this hope, Apple’s stock saw an uptick on Friday, reflecting a glimmer of relief for AAPL shareholders amid the tariff storm.
Patrick Seitz for Investor’s Business Daily:
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CFRA Research analyst Angelo Zino said the likelihood that Apple will get an exemption has risen since President Donald Trump hiked tariffs on China imports to 125% on Wednesday. Apple makes most of its iPhones in China.
“We expect Apple to delay passing any tariff costs to consumers until its fall product cycle, while raising our odds of an Apple-specific exemption to 50% (from 20%) if no U.S.-China deal materializes soon,” Zino said.
Trump will not want to hurt an American icon like Apple, especially after the company pledged to spend more than $500 billion over the next four years in U.S. manufacturing and other domestic investments, Zino said. Plus, the Trump tariffs could help Apple’s main competitor, South Korea-based Samsung, he said.
Mizuho Securities trading-desk analyst Jordan Klein said the investors he has spoken with are convinced that Trump will offer an exemption to Apple.
In a client note Friday, he said, “90% of investors seem to believe Apple will get a tariff exemption. They got one in 2018 under Trump.”

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MacDailyNews Take: Duh.
Expect specific exemptions from U.S. import tariffs for important Apple products. – MacDailyNews, February 2, 2025

If only we had seen how President Trump’s trade policies played out globally and how the markets reacted and responded previously. [dripping sarcasm]
Anyone who thinks Apple won’t get significant, meaningful U.S. import tariff exemptions hasn’t been paying attention. Profit from the panic of the uninformed and misinformed. – MacDailyNews, March 19, 2025

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