Barclays bearish on Apple stock: iPhone is ‘ex-growth,’ and Mac, iPad, Vision Pro are irrelevant

Apple CEO Tim Cook
Barclays’ most recent research report on Apple (AAPL), issued on June 24, 2025, from lead analyst Tim Long, maintains an Underweight rating with a price target of $173, despite Apple’s stock closing at $201.50 that day. The report, titled “Tim’s Three Things on AAPL, and Why We Still Don’t Like the Stock,” expresses skepticism about Apple’s growth prospects, particularly focusing on three key concerns:
• iPhone as “Ex-Growth:” Barclays argues that investors should pay closer attention to the iPhone being “ex-growth,” suggesting that the core product driving Apple’s revenue has limited growth potential. The analysts note, “Investors need to pay more attention to iPhones being ‘ex-growth,’” highlighting stagnating demand and market saturation as significant hurdles.
• Concentrated At-Risk Services Business: The report emphasizes risks in Apple’s Services segment, describing it as “very concentrated and at risk.” Barclays points out that the Services business, while a high-margin contributor, relies heavily on a few key revenue streams, making it vulnerable to competitive pressures and regulatory challenges.
• Lack of Impact from Other Products: The analysts assert that “no other products matter for the stock,” downplaying the significance of Apple’s newer offerings, such as Macs, iPads, and wearables. They argue these products lack the scale to meaningfully drive stock performance compared to the iPhone.
Barclays’ bearish stance persists despite Apple’s significant year-to-date underperformance, which sees the stock down $59.02, or 22.7%, from its all-time high of $260.10 set on December 26, 2024.
MacDailyNews Take: Every product is “irrelevant” (in terms of sales) compared to the iPhone whose influence is massive; reshaping technology, culture, and behavior in innumerable ways. iPhone popularized smartphones, putting personal computers in users’ pockets, merging communication, computing, and entertainment into one device. By 2025, over 6 billion smartphones are in use globally, all of which are either iPhones or iPhone knockoffs.
The Mac, iPad, and Apple services are not irrelevant, they’re additive as part of the Apple ecosystem where every Apple product and service you add increases the value of your other Apple products and services.
This report is also by yet another “analyst” who ignores Apple’s number one concern: “Leadership” that neglected the Siri lynchpin for a decade and a half, completely missed the GenAI paradigm shift, and is so far incapable of even looking like they’re catching up, much less actually getting there.
For how much longer will Teflon Tim’s protective coating last?
See also:
• Time to Think Different: Tim Cook’s leadership has run its course at Apple – June 20, 2025
• Tim Cook is not the best person to be CEO of Apple – April 2, 2019

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