What's the Next Big Thing in Tech? It's Up To Us

If it feels like new technologies go from flights of fancy to billion-dollar businesses faster than ever, that's because they do. From a column (which may be paywalled): Consider that Uber, founded in 2009, started allowing drivers to sign up with their own cars in 2013. Five short years later, the company operates in more than 70 countries and competes with dozens of copycats. It's considering going public in 2019 at a potential valuation of $120 billion, which would make it the biggest IPO in U.S. history by far. When novel software can go from hackathon to app store overnight, and even complex hardware can hit manufacturing lines in months, the determining factor of success is us -- as consumers, workers, even regulators. If the pitch works and we bite, a technology can quickly transform our social norms.

At the WSJ Tech D. Live conference in Laguna Beach, Calif., this week, what became apparent across dozens of talks, classes and informal chats is that, when almost anything we can dream up is possible, the most important factors in the spread of technology are now cultural. Not every new development in technology leads to an Uber-scale industry, of course, but here are five trends that highlight this shift. China's success in addressing tech needs at home has made it a global leader. As Google struggles with walkouts and morale at Facebook craters, many workers at Chinese startups are so committed to their work that they've adopted a grueling schedule called 996 -- 9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six days a week. In 2018, China will eclipse the U.S. in spending on R&D, projects the National Science Board.

Patrick Collison, chief executive of Stripe, talked about how much of Asia is leapfrogging the West because there isn't tons of old infrastructure -- like gas-guzzling car fleets -- to update, so the latest technology catches on right away. In China, this is especially true in payments, which are now overwhelmingly made through mobile phones. The world's leading face-recognition and drone companies are in China, and its electric-vehicle, autonomous-driving and AI companies are already on par with their U.S. counterparts, said Kai-Fu Lee, former president of Google China and current head of technology-investment firm Sinovation Ventures. China's mission rests on techies dedicated to building the future for its billion-plus population -- achieving global technological dominance en route.

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