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Will AI Replace Humans? Job Security Explored

mardi 27 août 2024, 16:00 , par eWeek
As organizations across all industries increasingly integrate artificial intelligence into workflows, the technology is driving fears about the job market and the future of work. Will AI replace humans? The only clear answer is “maybe.” Some jobs are more likely to experience AI disruption than others, with those consisting mainly of rote tasks more at risk. Some white collar jobs are already seeing AI integrated into their workflows, while jobs that require complex physical movements and human judgment—think plumbing or construction—are unlikely to be replaced by AI anytime soon. And jobs that require social and emotional skills, like teaching and social work, may never be. So, will artificial intelligence replace humans at work? No one can be sure, but here’s everything you need to know to form your own opinion.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

•Artificial intelligence will not replace humans for all jobs but it will change the way we work as more workers use AI tools to increase productivity. (Jump to Section)
•Jobs most at risk of AI disruption and replacement are those consisting mainly of repetitive tasks, while jobs least at risk are those requiring social, emotional and interpersonal skills. (Jump to Section)

Many AI experts predict that AI will open up more job opportunities than it removes from the economy, and that the technology will be a net positive for job growth in the near future. (Jump to Section)

TABLE OF CONTENTS
ToggleWill AI Replace Humans? Not All of ThemAI May Also Create New Jobs For HumansAI Job Displacement Will Vary by Role and RegionThe Current State of AI and Job Displacement4 Jobs at High Risk of AI Replacement4 Jobs Likely Safe from AI ReplacementBenefits of AI in the WorkplacePreparing for an AI-Dominated WorkforceFrequently Asked Questions (FAQs)Bottom Line: Will AI Replace Humans?

Will AI Replace Humans? Not All of Them

Like any new technology, artificial intelligence will cause job displacement in the near and distant future. According to a YouGov survey, 48 percent of working Americans believe that AI will decrease the number of jobs in their industry, a figure that has risen from 29 percent in March 2023. However, it’s unlikely the technology will replace all humans in the workforce. AI’s primary long-term effect on the labor market will probably be one of job change and creation, not elimination.

In a recent research paper, “The Impact of AI on US Labor Markets,” AI researchers and computer scientists from Austin Peay State University echoed this prediction. “Our findings suggest a more optimistic outlook for the labor market,” they wrote, “where rather than displacing jobs and workers, AI technologies have the potential to enhance their capabilities and create new opportunities.”

In other words, workers will use AI as a tool to automate busywork so they can spend more time on complex tasks and activities that require human-centric qualities like leadership, empathy, intuition, and relationship-building. AI will augment humans, not replace them.

AI May Also Create New Jobs For Humans

Many experts believe AI will create more jobs than it makes obsolete. According to the World Economic Forum’s “Future of Jobs Report,” employers “anticipate a structural labor market churn of 23 percent of jobs in the next five years” and a disruption of 44 percent of workers’ skills. Overall, however, the labor market prediction is optimistic, with the impact of most technologies on jobs expected to be a net positive over the next five years.

AI Job Displacement Will Vary by Role and Region

Some jobs are more likely to experience AI disruption than others. Jobs consisting mainly of rote tasks are more at risk of total elimination, while white collar jobs like data analysis, customer service, marketing, and programming are already seeing AI integrated into their workflows. Jobs that require complex physical movements along with human judgment are likely to go on without much AI disruption, at least for now.

Jobs like teaching and social work rely on emotional intelligence and social skills, which AI cannot replicate. They may never experience AI replacement. Blue and white collar workers who leverage AI and learn to work alongside it are far safer than those who ignore it.

As it differs by job category, AI exposure also differs by country. According to the International Monetary Fund, about 60 percent of jobs in advanced economies are exposed to AI disruption compared to 40 percent globally. Firms in these economies are more poised to integrate AI and, at least in theory, have the financial backing, educated workforce, fine-tuned processes, AI-forward attitudes, and advanced technologies to cost-efficiently exploit AI.

The Current State of AI and Job Displacement

Although generative AI has made an impact on marketing and data analysis jobs, it hasn’t caused significant layoffs—workers are using the tools rather than competing with them. So far, AI adoption is most prevalent in tech-driven industries like IT, finance, and education.

AI’s Impact by Industry and Role

Despite AI’s high news profile, its adoption rate is low. According to an analysis by the North Carolina Department of Commerce, only 5 percent U.S. businesses are currently using it. Adoption rates vary by industry, with IT, science, professional, tech, and educational services leading the charge while agriculture, utilities, construction, and transportation/warehousing bring up the rear.

As for specific jobs, generative AI has made its biggest impact over the last year on marketing and data analysis, putting jobs that require these skills most at risk. However, we have yet to see huge layoffs. Based on the same YouGov report, there is an increase in AI tool usage among employed Americans, from 20 percent in July 2023 to 27 percent now. It seems that marketers, analysts, content creators, and other professionals in the leading industries for AI adoption are integrating AI into their workflows rather than losing their livelihoods, as many had feared when ChatGPT was released.

Recent Statistics on AI-Driven Layoffs

It might be too early in the GenAI boom to gather definitive research, but surveys of business owners and employees can provide some insight into how AI is affecting job loss. For example, employees responding to Asana’s “The State of AI at Work” survey in 2023 said that AI could, in theory, replace 29 percent of their work tasks. Another report by Resume Builder surveyed 750 business leaders at companies that planned to integrate or had already integrated AI—some key findings include the following:

A third said they planned to replace employees with AI in 2024

37 percent of those already using AI said it had replaced workers in 2023

44 percent predicted that AI would cause layoffs in 2024

Corporations exist to maximize profits—they cut costs where they can, and AI represents the potential for serious decreases in labor costs. But the report also showed consensus among business leaders that AI skills can safeguard employees from AI replacement. Nearly 83 percent said that AI skills will help current employees keep their jobs, and 96 percent of those hiring in 2024 said candidates with AI skills are more attractive.

Taken together with World Economic Forum predictions that AI will increase the total number of jobs, the story may well be that many of those laid off in the coming years will be let go not because AI is replacing them but because they don’t work effectively with AI tools. In addition, although concerns about AI-driven job loss are high, only two percent of Americans personally experienced job loss or salary reductions due to AI, as per YouGov.

Expert Opinions on AI’s Capabilities and Limitations

There’s a consensus among AI experts, investors, and technologists that white collar jobs are the most likely to be impacted since they rely heavily on generative AI’s three greatest strengths: data analysis, content creation, and digital task automation. Here are a few examples:

In a recent interview, Burning Glass Institute’s Chief Economist Gad Levanon said that today’s most popular applications of AI focus on using language to acquire and generate content. As a result, the technology is more likely to affect white-collar jobs than blue-collar jobs that require physical abilities.

Investors at J.P. Morgan’s fifth Annual Global Machine Learning Conference shared their views about which industries will be most affected by generative AI, citing marketing, legal services and insurance, data analytics, and consumer tech.

The hybrid model of skilled employees using the technology to improve their own efficiency and capability looks increasingly viable for certain industries and roles. For example, copywriters might use an AI writing tool to create a rough draft, but use their company knowledge, writer’s intuition, and facility with language to polish it into a compelling sales page.

In a Daily Mail interview, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said the hybrid model of humans working with the technology rather than being replaced by it is likely to continue being successful in the near future in white collar roles, with blue collar jobs having the least AI exposure.

4 Jobs at High Risk of AI Replacement

Some jobs are in more danger than others. For now, at least, many of these at-risk positions are more likely to be changed by AI rather than eliminated by it, but that may change as AI continues to advance.

Customer Service Representatives

Customer service representatives in call centers and businesses are already being replaced by AI chatbots. Some customers would rather interact with chatbots than speak to a human for simple queries like forgotten passwords, and this option is generally less costly for businesses.

These applications rely on interactive voice response software, which uses natural language processing to understand and respond to customer questions, but there will always be a need for customer service reps at higher skill levels. For example, businesses need customer-facing reps to grow relationships with customers and handle more complex customer challenges.

Data Entry and Administrative Roles

Data entry and administrative positions that primarily move data across systems and handle repetitive administrative tasks—for example, office managers, bookkeepers, assistants, and receptionists—are at high risk of being automated. Upskilling and learning how to take on more strategic components of the job can protect these workers from AI replacement and also give them the potential to do more meaningful, high-paying work.

Drivers and Transportation Workers

Currently, AI technologies are mostly used to increase driver safety and efficiency rather than actually take over the driver’s seat. However, AI researchers recently predicted AI will outperform truck drivers by 2027, though autonomous trucks will likely still require human supervision. Autonomous vehicles also put transportation workers like Uber and Lyft drivers at risk, as seen on the streets of San Francisco, but legal issues, ethical concerns, and public attitudes toward self-driving cars could hold back the technology’s integration into society.

Basic Programming and Coding Tasks

In a cruel twist of fate, programming jobs are some of the first and most common to be replaced by AI. Large language model-powered tools like Chat-GPT can write simple code and execute basic programming tasks, and AI developer tools make it easy for businesses to build websites and create apps without any code at all. Skilled coders who know how to problem-solve and innovate are likely still safe from automation—in fact, they actually stand to benefit from the boom, as they can use these AI tools to increase their coding efficiency and the quality of their outputs.

4 Jobs Likely Safe from AI Replacement

Jobs that put a high premium on soft skills like problem-solving, leadership, judgment, and emotional intelligence are relatively safe from AI replacement. Below are four of the safest jobs in the oncoming AI revolution.

Teachers and Educators

Teachers and educators are unlikely to be replaced by AI anytime soon. Algorithms can help teachers identify weak spots in student understanding by analyzing their performance—Khan Academy uses one for this purpose, for example—but they cannot replace an educator’s enthusiasm for the material, relationships with students, and overall authority, which are all vital for the generational transmission of knowledge, ethics, and character.

Healthcare Professionals

Robotic hands can help surgeons improve their surgery, and AI imaging technology can help them improve the accuracy of their diagnoses. But a highly trained neurosurgeon, nurse, or any healthcare professional does far more in the course of their work than just these AI-augmented tasks. Healthcare professionals form relationships with patients, guide them and their loved ones through treatments, and perform both technical and soft skills—persuading a patient to follow a new diet, for example, or displaying empathy while revealing a tough diagnosis—that AI cannot do on its own.

Skilled Trades

There are many complex tasks involved in diagnosing a leak, tiling a roof, or building a patio, and AI still doesn’t have the physical dexterity or problem solving abilities to handle them. There may be some exceptionally distant day when a humanoid robot can handle these tasks, but can the robot then actually gain the trust of the owners? In essence, these jobs require a combination of human judgment and the ability to talk with clients and business about why a certain pipe or electrical fixture needs to be replaced, at what cost, and on what timeline.

Leadership and Management Roles

Artificial intelligence can help managers make data-driven decisions, create plans, and gain visibility into their team’s performance, but it won’t replace them. People struggle enough to follow the lead of qualified humans—why would they listen to a robot? Leaders and managers are necessary for inspiring, guiding, and coaching staff, as well as networking with leaders from other departments or institutions. To make snap strategic decisions, they also rely on knowledge and intuition about stakeholder interests, employee abilities, market dynamics, and other qualitative factors that are often invisible or meaningless to an AI algorithm.

Benefits of AI in the Workplace

AI is set to change the workplace in a wide array of ways, from increasing worker efficiency to creating new job opportunities. Making employees aware of the benefits of artificial intelligence can go a long way toward mitigating their fears that it will replace them.

Increased Efficiency and Productivity

Artificial intelligence can increase worker efficiency and productivity across industries by automating repetitive tasks and informing data-driven decisions. Salespeople are already using AI sales tools to analyze lead information and historical sales data to identify leads most likely to buy, freeing up time to focus on ideal buyers. LLM-powered sales engagement tools then allow the seller to auto-generate cold outreach emails. The natural result of AI integrations like this one is that workers get more done in less time, allowing them either to take more time for themselves or do more impactful, high-level work.

Creation of New Job Opportunities

The invention of the tractor changed farm labor forever. Many manual labor farming jobs were lost to efficient machines, but new jobs and industries were created—including manufacturing jobs to build and maintain the machinery, food processing plants, and large-scale grocery stores, all of which needed employees.

The advancement of artificial intelligence should do the same, opening doors to new careers and ways of making a living. Already we’re seeing new job titles—for example, prompt engineers to input text into LLMs to get desired outputs—and soon we might see AI integration specialists to help organizations adopt and implement AI technology.

More Engaged and Focused Work

With AI taking care of the administrative tasks, workers will have more time for creative, strategic, or social work that AI can’t do, such as designing new branding strategies or attending more networking events to meet investors and customers. This should improve job satisfaction, as people are creating real value rather than doing repetitive tasks. It’s also not hard to imagine a world where, with all the productivity gains, people are free to spend more time outside of work with their families and friends, hobbies, and creative or intellectual pursuits.

Preparing for an AI-Dominated Workforce

Throughout history, those who’ve embraced new technologies have thrived in the new economies they’ve created, while those who ignore new developments have fallen behind in efficiency by being left unable to match the competition. Here are some ways to prepare yourself to use AI as an opportunity to become a stronger worker:

Engage in Upskilling and Continuous Learning: New skills—including soft skills like leadership and the ability to work with AI tools—will become increasingly valuable. Take online courses, obtain an AI certification, and continue gaining new skills that are needed in your field.

Develop AI-Complimentary Skills: Learn AI automation, communication, fact-checking, critical thinking, problem-solving, and other skills that will help you direct and use AI tools to their full potential. This will increase your efficiency and make you a more valuable employee.

Think of AI as an Augmentation Tool: Use AI to handle parts of your job that are routine or frustrating and focus on work that requires human ingenuity. For example, copywriters might use AI to brainstorm 10 headlines for a blog post and then use their knowledge of copywriting and psychology to select the best one.

Stay Informed About Regulatory Changes: More than half of the YouGov respondents believe AI should be regulated, with 56 percent supporting government oversight in the workplace. This growing support underscores the importance of staying informed about these regulations, as new rules might impact your industry.

Learn to use AI to improve the quality of your work, and new opportunities will present themselves to you during this time of technological change.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Will AI Replace My Job?

It’s more likely that a person using AI will replace you than that AI itself will. A person using AI may replace you if they are more efficient and productive because of their mastery of the tool. It’s critical to familiarize yourself with the AI tools in your field to stay on the cutting edge.

Will AI Ever Replace Doctors?

AI is unlikely to ever replace doctors, since doctors do things AI can never do, like comfort patients and build relationships. However, the technology should help doctors with various parts of their job, from diagnosing patients with AI imaging to performing operations with robotic tools.

What Jobs May Not Exist in 10 Years?

Jobs that consist primarily of rote and repetitive tasks are most likely to disappear in the next 10 years.

Bottom Line: Will AI Replace Humans?

Artificial intelligence is not going to replace humans in the labor market, but as it evolves, it’s likely to become increasingly merged into our workflows, from marketers using generative AI to help create content to teachers relying on machine learning to spot gaps in student knowledge. Going forward, the best way to protect your value as a worker is to learn to use these tools to your advantage.

Read our guide to the top generative AI tools to find software to help you create content and build your career.
The post Will AI Replace Humans? Job Security Explored appeared first on eWEEK.
https://www.eweek.com/artificial-intelligence/will-ai-replace-jobs/

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