AI to create better products and services, add $19.9T to global economy — IDC

Business spending to adopt and use AI in existing operations, and to deliver better products and services, is expected to drive 3.5% of global GDP by 2030, adding $19.9 trillion to the world economy, according to a new report from research firm IDC.

AI spending by businesses alone is expected to reach $632 billion by 2028, IDC had estimated in an earlier study.

As a result, AI will affect jobs across every region of the world, affecting industries from contact center operations to translation, accounting, and machinery inspection, according to IDC. Helping to trigger this shift are business leaders, 98% of whom view AI as a priority for their organizations.

David Foote, chief analyst and research officer with IT research firm Foote Partners, believes that 20% to 25% of tech jobs could eventually be taken by AI. “There have been a lot of layoffs,” he said. “Companies are identifying people who may have been solid workers in the past, but they don’t fit into the new world driven by the [emerging] economy and the technology they’re making bets on.”

While AI will reduce or eliminate the need for human input in some areas, it will also enhance productivity, requiring professionals to reskill and adapt to take on more strategic and creative roles, according to a research note by Foote. Along those lines, Goldman Sachs has projected that as many as 29% of computer-related job tasks could be automated by AI, as well as 28% of work by healthcare practitioners and technical tasks in that field. Careers with the highest exposure to AI automation are administrative positions (46%) and tasks in legal (44%) professions.

Nearly half of respondents to IDC’s Future of Work Employees Survey (48%) expect some parts of their work to be automated by AI and other tech over the next two years — and another 15% think most of their jobs will be automated. Only 3% expect their jobs to be fully automated.

Despite that disruption, however, AI will have a “net positive global economic impact,” according to the latest IDC report. In 2030, every new dollar spent on business-related AI solutions and services will generate $4.60 in the global economy in terms of indirect and induced effects.

Those impacts include:

Increased spending on AI solutions and services driven by accelerated AI adoption;

Economic stimulus among AI adopters, seeing benefits in terms of increased production and new revenue streams;

And an increase in revenue across the AI providers supply chain including services providers.

“In 2024, AI entered a phase of accelerated development and deployment defined by widespread integration that’s led to a surge in enterprise investments aimed at significantly optimizing operational costs and timelines,” said Lapo Fioretti, an IDC senior research analyst. “By automating routine tasks and unlocking new efficiencies, AI will have profound economic consequences, reshaping industries, creating new markets, and altering the competitive landscape.”

New job roles to emerge

A survey of CFOs in June by Duke University and the Atlanta and Richmond Federal Reserve banks found that 32% of organizations plan to use AI in the next year to complete tasks once done by humans. And in the first six months of 2024, nearly 60% of companies (and 84% of large companies) said they had deployed software, equipment, or technology to automate tasks previously done by employees.

While some work is being negatively affected by the rapid proliferation of AI tools and platforms, new positions such as AI ethics specialists and AI prompt engineers will emerge as dedicated roles within global organizations.

IDC’s research also indicates that positions where human social and emotional capabilities are critical, such as nursing and roles where decision-making encompasses ethics and comprehension beyond numbers, will remain robust. “Understandably, we’re all curious to know if AI will replace our jobs,” said Rick Villars, IDC group vice president, for worldwide research.

As one CEO told IDC researchers, “Based on this research it’s clear that we should be asking ourselves how our jobs can be made easier and better by AI. AI will not replace your job but someone who knows how to use AI better than you will,” Villars added.