We May Have Passed Peak Obesity

An anonymous reader shares a report: The year 1963 was surely one of the most significant of the 20th century. President John F Kennedy was assassinated, Martin Luther King delivered his 'I have a dream' speech, and the Beatles recorded and released their debut album. But for all the huge political and cultural events, it was arguably an even more momentous year for public health: 1963 was the year cigarette sales peaked and began to fall in the US.

A generation from now, we may look back on 2020 in a similar way. Yes, there was the small matter of a global pandemic, but this may also have been the year obesity levels ceased their inexorable rise and began to descend. Around the world, obesity rates have been stubbornly climbing for decades, if anything accelerating in recent years. But now newly released data finds that the US adult obesity rate fell by around two percentage points between 2020 and 2023.

We have known for several years from clinical trials that Ozempic, Wegovy and the new generation of diabetes and weight loss drugs produce large and sustained reductions in body weight. Now with mass public usage taking off -- one in eight US adults have used the drugs, with 6 per cent current users -- the results may be showing up at the population level. While we can't be certain that the new generation of drugs are behind this reversal, it is highly likely. For one, the decline is steepest among college graduates, the group most likely to be using them.

Crucially, the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, which reported the unprecedented decline in obesity levels, uses weight and height measurements taken by medical examiners, not self-reported values. This makes it far more reliable than other surveys. American waistlines really do seem to be shrinking. What makes this all the more remarkable is the contrast in mechanisms behind the respective declines in smoking and obesity.

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