Trump tariffs could raise laptop, tablet prices by 46%, cut sales by 68%

A new report from the Consumer Technology Association (CTA) indicates the tariffs President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose against foreign shipments of technology into the US could threaten the products consumers rely on.

Trump, who re-takes office on Jan. 20, recently threatened to impose significant tariffs on technology and other imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. On Nov. 25, for example, he unveiled plans to implement a 25% tariff on all goods from Canada and Mexico, using the measure to pressure the two nations to address illegal immigration and drug trafficking.

Additionally, he proposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, citing concerns over trade imbalances and unfair practices.

Specifically, levies on technology product and parts imports could reduce US consumer purchasing power by between $90 billion and $143 billion. That, in turn, could force laptop and tablet prices up by as much as 46% — and potentially cut laptop and tablet purchases by 68%, gaming consoles by 58%, and smartphones by 37%, according to the CTA report.

The prospect of new tariffs has raised concerns among economists and trading partners. Maurice Obstfeld, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, warned in an interview with MarketWatch that such measures could lead to the formation of hostile trading blocs and a potential global economic downturn.

Consumer Technology Assoociation

In response to the Trump threats, the Canadian government has indicated it would retaliate against any tariffs on Canadian goods; for its part, Mexico has said any such tariffs would not effectively address immigration issues.

“The incoming administration must address how tariffs impact American businesses and consumers,” said CTA Vice President of Trade Ed Brzytwa. “Retaliation from our trading partners raises costs, disrupts supply chains, and hurts the competitiveness of US industries. US trade policy should protect consumers and help American businesses succeed globally.”

Without tariffs in place, the CTA expects robust growth for the US consumer tech industry in 2025, projecting record retail revenue will rise 3.2% compared to 2024 to $537 billion this year. 

Stephen Minton, IDC vice president of data and analytics research, said the impact of tariffs on PC, tablet, and smartphone prices and sales will depend on tariff size, exemptions, timing, and the inclusion of PCs and components.

“So, it’s too early to get specific, but what we do know is that a large share of PCs are currently still manufactured in China — almost 90% of the global market — which makes PCs more exposed to some of the proposed tariffs than most other IT segments,” Minton said.

US vendors like Apple, HP, and Dell still manufacture most of their PCs in China, but some of those companies have begun shifting production to countries like Vietnam and Thailand, Minton noted. (Apple has also made a push to move manufacturing to India.)

Even so, any large new tariffs on imports from China would almost certainly lead to PC price increases, Minton said.

“This could force enterprises to purchase fewer PC upgrades in order to stay within their allocated 2025 budgets,” Minton said. “This would be especially true at the lower end of the market, where there’s very little margin for vendors to absorb the impact of any new tariffs. …It’s likely that any significant new tariffs would be passed on to all customers.”

Additionally, in reaction to the possibility of tariffs, tech suppliers could stockpile inventory in early 2025 to avoid future price hikes, according to Greg Davis, an analyst with market research firm Canalys.

Commercial demand for PCs and tablets remained strong in late 2024, with 12% shipment growth in Q3. The Windows 11 refresh is ongoing — especially with the end of support for Windows 10 coming in October — and commercial strength is expected to persist into early 2025, according to Davis. Total PC shipments to the US are expected to rise 6% to just under 70 million units in 2024 followed by modest 2% growth in both 2025 and 2026.

Consumer purchases drove growth earlier this year, but the commercial market now leads US PC sales, according to Davis. Businesses large and small are upgrading to Windows 11 PCs more actively in the second half of the year.

Even so, macroeconomic conditions in the US are not expected to be as stable in the near-term as they have been over the last year or two, Davis said. “With reports of import tariffs seemingly on the horizon, the PC market will likely be impacted in a noticeable way,” he said.