More than 4% PC shipment growth predicted for 2025, but not for what you expect, says IDC

PC sales certainly weren’t going gangbusters in 2024: They only grew a paltry 1% over 2023.

According to new figures from IDC, vendors shipped 262.7 million PCs in 2024. But things did pick up a bit in Q4 2024: Shipments grew 1.8% over the prior year, reaching 68.9 million.

While all this may seem like a modest gain, it still represents progress in a time of economic instability, fear of inflation, geopolitical tensions, and the upcoming US regime change.

“1% growth is actually a pretty good thing in the PC industry right now,” Ryan Reith, group vice president, IDC’s Worldwide Device Trackers, told Computerworld. “That’s what we expected for the year, and actually, the market is shifting back to some recovery.”

The year of refresh

2025 will likely see bigger numbers. IDG expects 4.3% growth in total PC shipments in the coming year. This will largely be due to commercial refreshes that occur even in the “toughest of macro-economic times,” Reith pointed out. Typically, medium-to-large sized companies update their PCs at least every three to four years.

“The commercial refresh usually is pretty resilient because, certainly in developed markets, a lot of medium to large enterprises want to stay ahead,” said Reith.

Indeed, Microsoft has declared 2025 the “year of the Windows 11 PC refresh,” as the tech giant is ending feature and security support for Windows 10 PCs beginning October 14.

However, many factors remain uncertain, including fears of inflation, ongoing geopolitical disputes, and big changes expected with the impending Trump administration. The Consumer Technology Association, for one, estimates that Trump’s proposed steep tariffs on imports — ranging from 10 to 20% for most countries and climbing as high as 100% from China — could increase laptop and tablet prices by as much as 68%.

What about AI PCs?

There has been a ton of hype around AI PCs, as they are set to fundamentally change the way people interact with devices. For instance, built-in AI can perform certain tasks such as information retrieval, while more advanced AI agents can even take autonomous action, leading to significant productivity gains.

Gartner, for instance, has projected that AI PCs will account for 43% of all PCs in 2025. The firm’s analysts estimate that worldwide shipments of AI PCs will total 114 million units this year, representing an increase of more than 165% over 2024. Further, the firm predicts that by 2026, AI laptops will be the only choice of laptop available to large enterprises (compared to less than 5% availability in 2023).

Big tech is certainly betting on this trend. Microsoft, for its part, introduced Copilot+ PCs in May, and Nvidia introduced its AI PC Project Digits this week at CES. Qualcomm and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) have unveiled their own AI processors and Dell is working on AI hardware, too.

“This is a huge leap of technology, from every aspect of software down to the hardware and everything in between,” said Reith. “This is going to be a fundamental change, in a positive way, in the industry.”

More advanced PCs that can do more than other PCs (and humans, too) might eventually translate to less hardware shipped, he noted. However, it will be a net positive. “There’s going to be a lot of revenue gains from that, from the software side, cloud side, everything else.”

Not so fast…

Still, Reith noted, the industry has gotten a little ahead of itself when it comes to AI PCs. While they someday will become the norm — all modern laptops and desktops, after all, contain some sort of AI — that’s more of a long-term trend.

This is notably because “budgets are constrained across the board,” said Reith. “It doesn’t matter if you’re a tech company, healthcare, whatever. When AI comes up, it’s, ‘Look, how much extra is that going to cost?’ It’s all about the dollar.”

Also, while they’re innovating at an impressive clip, big tech companies haven’t really lived up to the hype, he pointed out. Industry watchers, for instance, thought Microsoft would deliver more around Copilot+, providing concrete use cases through its partnerships and illustrating how enterprises can get returns on their investments.

“Microsoft didn’t deliver, but it didn’t fall on its face,” said Reith. “Even if you under-deliver a little bit in a time when budgets are constrained, it puts a bigger spotlight on, ‘Hey, maybe we can wait a little bit.’”

There are still very, very good PCs out there

IT decision makers don’t need to feel rushed to purchase AI PCs, Reith noted. Don’t rule out PCs the next level down, he advised; there are still “really, really good” products from PC vendors that run Intel’s Meteor Lake processors (introduced in 2023) or AMD chips, among others.

“So don’t feel like you’re buying down,” said Reith. “We have a lot of very, very good PCs; they’re just not the ones that are the latest and greatest and cost 50% more.”

Also, he pointed out, while Microsoft is sunsetting Windows 10, enterprises still have access to an affordable service support extension. “It’s a very, very attractive option, especially right now, if you’ve got good hardware.”

The AI PC buzz is real

Recognizing the dampening of interest (at least for now) in AI PCs, suppliers like Lenovo, HP, Dell, and others are already adjusting and shifting their focus to PCs the next level down in their portfolio, said Reith.

“It’s going to pick up, they’ve kind of paused a little bit on the supply side,” he said. However, “they’re not going to slow down the innovation.” In fact, “they’re innovating like crazy.”

Ultimately, “the buzz is real,” he said. “I think everyone got a little over their heads on the immediate opportunity. It’s just going to be a little bit more prolonged.”