The quantum computing reality check

In late 2024, a major pharmaceutical company invested $50 million in quantum computing initiatives through a leading cloud provider, hoping to revolutionize their drug discovery process. Six months later, they quietly shifted their resources to traditional high-performance computing and AI-driven solutions. This story isn’t unique; it represents a growing pattern of enterprises learning the hard way that most of quantum computing’s promises remain theoretical despite the aggressive marketing of quantum computing as a service (QaaS).

In some circumstances, quantum computing is a massive waste of money and a huge distraction. I suspect I’ll get some hate for this statement, even from companies and people I consider friends. But QaaS is taking priority over other investments during this push, which has been underway for decades but has yet to return much value. We must stop falling into these hype traps that cause us to lose money and progress.

I know a few of you will remember my post when I was skeptical but more optimistic about the potential for quantum computing in the cloud. Since then, I’ve done many hours of research and worked on enterprise projects that have evaluated or are using quantum computing. I now have a less optimistic take on QaaS, so I felt compelled to provide an updated view of this technology. I’m moving from a stance of “wait for it!” to “perhaps it’s time we moved on.”

The reality of quantum

As we enter 2025, it’s time for a frank discussion about quantum computing’s place in enterprise technology strategies. The allure is undeniable: QaaS promises to solve complex problems in minutes where traditional computers would take a millennium. Yet, the reality is far more nuanced and disappointing for those who seek immediate business value.

Major cloud providers have made quantum computing accessible through their platforms, which creates an illusion of readiness for enterprise adoption. However, this accessibility masks a fatal flaw: Most quantum computing applications remain experimental. Indeed, most require deep expertise in quantum physics and specialized programming knowledge. Real-world applications are severely limited, and the costs are astronomical compared to the actual value delivered.

Consider the experience of a global financial services firm that spent $20 million developing quantum algorithms for portfolio optimization. After 18 months of development, they discovered that enhanced classical algorithms combined with existing AI solutions could achieve comparable results at a fraction of the cost. This illustrates a crucial point: The opportunity cost of investing in quantum computing often outweighs the potential benefits.

Business ROI is a moving goalpost

The timeline to practical quantum computing applications is another sobering reality. Industry experts suggest we’re still 7 to 15 years away from quantum systems capable of handling production workloads. This extended horizon makes it difficult to justify significant investments. Until then, more immediate returns could be realized through existing technologies.

I’ve spent the past 10 years consulting on quantum computing projects, both cloud and not cloud, where the best path to value was not to use quantum computing at all. In many instances, the client ignored my recommendation and pressed on. In those instances, when the objective changed from “finding business value” to “developing an emerging technology,” I learned of failed projects. I always tell enterprises they won’t profit from building their own IT systems around R&D. Let others experiment.

The distraction factor cannot be overlooked. Companies pursuing quantum computing initiatives often divert valuable resources, including financial and human capital, from more pressing technological needs. Quantum computing may eventually deliver on its promises, but organizations must focus on solving today’s business problems with today’s tools.

The industry’s fascination with quantum computing has made companies fear being left behind or, worse, not being part of the “cool kids club”; they want to deliver extraordinary presentations to investors and customers. We tend to jump into new trends too fast because the allure of being part of something exciting and new is just too compelling. I’ve fallen into this trap myself.

“Juice worth the squeeze”

Organizations need to adopt a more pragmatic approach to quantum computing. Instead of making speculative investments in QaaS, companies should focus on understanding how existing technologies can solve their current business challenges. Don’t ignore quantum computing entirely, but do maintain an informed perspective while avoiding costly premature commitments.

The key takeaway isn’t that quantum computing lacks potential. The timeline for realizing this potential is longer than many vendors and enthusiasts suggest. Organizations must balance their excitement for quantum computing with practical considerations about immediate business value and return on investment. I’m optimistic about the potential value in QaaS. However, I don’t think it will be as much as many expect, and it might end up being just a stepping stone to other technologies with more business value potential.

Throughout 2025, the most successful organizations will resist the premature urge to jump on the quantum bandwagon. Instead, they’ll focus on leveraging proven technologies while maintaining a watchful eye. The future of quantum computing may be bright, but for most organizations, the present demands a more grounded approach to technology investment and innovation.

Remember, not every technological advance needs to be adopted immediately. Sometimes, the wisest decision is to let others pioneer the path while you extract maximum value from existing technologies. In the case of quantum computing, patience is the most profitable strategy.