Asteroid 2024 YR4 Spared The Earth. What Happens if It Hits the Moon Instead in 2032?

Remember asteroid 2024 YR4 (which at one point had a 1 in 32 chance of hitting Earth, before ending up at 'impact probability zero')? CNN reports that asteroid is now 'zooming beyond the reach of telescopes on its orbit around the sun.'

'But as scientists wait for it to reappear, its revised trajectory is now drawing attention to another possible target: the moon.'

The latest observations of the asteroid in early June, before YR4 disappeared from view, have improved astronomers' knowledge of where it will be in seven years by almost 20%, according to NASA. That data shows that even with Earth avoiding direct impact, YR4 could still pose a threat in late 2032 by slamming into the moon. ['The asteroid's probability of impacting the Moon has slightly increased from 3.8% to 4.3%,' writes NASA, and 'it would not alter the Moon's orbit.']


CNN calls the probabiliy 'small but decent enough odds for scientists to consider how such a scenario might play out.'

The collision could create a bright flash that would be visible with the naked eye for several seconds, according to Wiegert, lead author of a recent paper submitted to the American Astronomical Society journals analyzing the potential lunar impact. The collision could create an impact crater on the moon estimated at 1 kilometer wide (0.6 miles wide), Wiegert said... It would be the largest impact on the moon in 5,000 years and could release up to 100 million kilograms (220 million pounds) of lunar rocks and dust, according to the modeling in Wiegert's study... Particles the size of large sand grains, ranging from 0.1 to 10 millimeters in size, of lunar material could reach Earth between a few days and a few months after the asteroid strike because they'll be traveling incredibly fast, creating an intense, eye-catching meteor shower, Wiegert said.
'There's absolutely no danger to anyone on the surface,' Wiegert said. 'We're not expecting large boulders or anything larger than maybe a sugar cube, and our atmosphere will protect us very nicely from that. But they're traveling faster than a speeding bullet, so if they were to hit a satellite, that could cause some damage....' Hundreds to thousands of impacts from millimeter-size debris could affect Earth's satellite fleet, meaning satellites could experience up to 10 years' equivalent of meteor debris exposure in a few days, Wiegert said... While a temporary loss of communication and navigation from satellites would create widespread difficulties on Earth, Wiegert said he believes the potential impact is something for satellite operators, rather than the public, to worry about.


'Any missions in low-Earth orbit could also be in the pathway of the debris, though the International Space Station is scheduled to be deorbited before any potential impact,' reports CNN.
And they add that Wiegert also believes even small pieces of debris (tens of centimeters in size) 'could present a hazard for any astronauts who may be present on the moon, or any structures they have built for research and habitation... The moon has no atmosphere, so the debris from the event could be widespread on the lunar surface, he added.'

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