An EU breakup with US cloud providers

European organizations are increasingly vocal about their desire to reduce their reliance on US-based hyperscalers like Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud. This goal stems from a growing need to achieve digital sovereignty, comply with stricter data privacy regulations, and counter geopolitical challenges that make it risky to depend on non-EU infrastructure. European policymakers are pushing for technological infrastructure that is both localized and strategically independent.

Forrester’s 2026 European Predictions report suggests that although the desire for cloud sovereignty is both clear and justified, the practical challenges make it unlikely that any European company will completely disentangle itself by 2026. The report cites operational, economic, and technological constraints as key roadblocks to achieving complete independence, but it understates the growth and capability of alternative platforms within the EU. Sovereign clouds, non-US providers, and local managed services providers are steadily evolving, offering real alternatives. The real question is less about capacity or availability and more about whether European companies are genuinely ready to invest the time, resources, and energy in such a significant change to their cloud strategy.

EU interest in cloud sovereignty

Three main issues drive the EU’s effort to disconnect from US cloud providers. First, geopolitical instability has increased concerns about relying heavily on US-based infrastructure, especially when US laws like the CLOUD Act (Clarifying Lawful Overseas Use of Data) can compel US companies to disclose data stored abroad. This creates compliance challenges for EU companies, especially those protected by the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR).

Second is data sovereignty. European companies and governments want more autonomy over their data: where it resides, how it is processed, and who controls it. Continued reliance on US providers raises questions about data privacy and regulatory risks, as American companies must navigate conflicting requirements between US laws and European privacy regulations.

Third is an economic rationale. By shifting to local providers, more revenue stays within the EU, bolstering the region’s technological ecosystem and fostering innovation in homegrown industries. Economically, this is a long-term pivot designed to lessen Europe’s dependence on other regions for essential technology platforms.

Is Forrester underestimating Europe?

Forrester’s assessment that Europe won’t break free from US hyperscalers by 2026 relies on several key points: the lack of local capacity for large-scale workloads, the economic costs of shifting platforms, and the technical advantages of major American providers over their European competitors.

These concerns are not entirely insurmountable. Sovereign cloud providers like OVHcloud and Deutsche Telekom’s Open Telekom Cloud have been steadily improving, showing their ability to handle workloads with compliance, transparency, and data residency within the EU. Additionally, cloud providers in other regions have advanced in scalability and support, offering logical alternatives for companies unwilling to depend on their American counterparts.

Local managed services providers further improve these sovereign solutions by offering deployment and management expertise to help organizations navigate potential skills gaps or operational complexities. Perhaps the issue is not so much about capacity or capability but whether organizations are prepared to take on the costs, risks, and disruptions inherent in cloud migration.

Desire versus pragmatism

Moving workloads away from US hyperscalers is a significant challenge. Many European companies believe that the practicality of sticking with longstanding providers outweighs the potential benefits of independence. US-based hyperscalers provide economies of scale, cutting-edge innovation in areas like artificial intelligence and analytics, and sometimes offer generous pricing tied to long-term contracts. Smaller providers often can’t compete with these advantages, making enterprises hesitant to commit to large-scale migrations.

Moreover, many organizations already operate in multicloud or hybrid cloud environments, which makes achieving complete independence logistically and operationally complex. Even if a company transitions some workloads to sovereign clouds, it’s likely that a multicloud strategy will still retain specific dependencies on US platforms. Such a strategy can reduce geopolitical and regulatory risks, but it introduces greater operational complexity, which costs more and requires advanced cloud management expertise.

Forrester’s analysis correctly highlights these obstacles, but it misses the ambition and capacity already present in Europe’s emerging sovereign cloud ecosystem. While change may be slow and piecemeal for most industries, the necessary tools and platforms are available today. Ultimately, it’s up to enterprises to decide whether they move forward.

How the EU can gain independence

Addressing the technical, financial, and operational challenges of reducing dependence on US-based cloud providers requires a structured approach, clear objectives, and practical steps. First, EU organizations need to focus on detailed planning and resource budgeting. Cloud sovereignty comes at a cost, and businesses must allocate resources carefully to ensure each step of the migration process is financially viable. Understanding the total cost of ownership is essential. This includes initial migration costs, personnel training, long-term operational expenses, and investments in skills development for managing new systems.

Second, businesses need to prepare for multicloud complexity. Multicloud strategies are likely to dominate as companies test or gradually adopt sovereign cloud providers while maintaining some workloads with legacy providers. This approach requires more investment in cloud orchestration, governance, and security tools to manage multiple platforms without losing efficiency or increasing risks.

Ultimately, organizations must think about the future by assessing the long-term risks and viability of the new platforms they choose. Providers need to be evaluated for their financial stability, scalability, and commitment to innovation. Neglecting this can lock businesses into subpar systems and expose them to new risks. Companies should also prepare for contingencies in case a selected provider doesn’t meet expectations or faces operational issues over time.

Forrester’s analysis might accurately predict that most European organizations will continue relying on US hyperscalers for the foreseeable future. However, it overlooks the growing availability of sovereign solutions already on the market. The tools and platforms are in place—and still evolving—but the responsibility lies with European companies to make the necessary decisions.

By focusing on detailed planning, accepting multicloud realities, and carefully evaluating future platform viability, EU businesses can develop a path that offers a better balance between practicality and sovereignty. Fully disconnecting from US-based providers may not be practical yet at a large scale, but change is possible. It just requires the will and readiness to act.