Coinbase CEO Stunt Exposes Prediction Market Vulnerability

An anonymous reader shares a report: When Coinbase's quarterly earnings call wrapped up Thursday, its chief executive, Brian Armstrong, didn't finish with profit guidance or statements of confidence. He closed it out with a list: 'Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking and Web3.' Those weren't random buzzwords. They were part of an $84,000 betting market [non-paywalled source].

Across prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, users had wagered on which words would be spoken during the call -- part of a niche category known as mention markets, where the outcome isn't tied to earnings, price moves or sports games, but to what people say in some public forum. With the final analyst question complete, several terms listed in contracts were still unsaid. Armstrong ticked them off one by one.

'I was a little distracted because I was tracking the prediction market about what Coinbase will say on their next earnings call,' he said in his parting remarks. 'I just want to add here the words Bitcoin, Ethereum, blockchain, staking, and Web3 -- to make sure we get those in before the end of the call.' The exchange's CEO had just moved a market -- even if only a small one.

Mention markets are one of the more curious byproducts of the broader prediction market boom, but also one of the more controversial. Platforms like Kalshi, which is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and Polymarket, which is in the process of returning to the US market, let users wager on the outcomes of real-world events. That can mean elections, policy decisions, or sports -- but also, increasingly, corporate rituals and even common jargon.

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