Iceland Deems Possible Atlantic Current Collapse A Security Risk

Iceland has formally classified the potential collapse of a major Atlantic Ocean current system a national security threat, warning that a disruption could trigger a modern-day ice age in Northern Europe and destabilize global weather systems. The move elevates the risk across government and enables it to strategize for worst-case scenarios. Reuters reports: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, current brings warm water from the tropics northward toward the Arctic, and the flow of warm water helps keep Europe's winters mild. But as warming temperatures speed the thaw of Arctic ice and cause meltwater from Greenland's ice sheet to pour into the ocean, scientists warn the cold freshwater could disrupt the current's flow.

A potential collapse of AMOC could trigger a modern-day ice age, with winter temperatures across Northern Europe plummeting to new cold extremes, bringing far more snow and ice. The AMOC has collapsed in the past - notably before the last Ice Age that ended about 12,000 years ago. 'It is a direct threat to our national resilience and security,' Iceland Climate Minister Johann Pall Johannsson said by email. '(This) is the first time a specific climate-related phenomenon has been formally brought before the National Security Council as a potential existential threat.'

Elevation of the issue means Iceland's ministries will be on alert and coordinating a response, Johannsson said. The government is assessing what further research and policies are needed, with work underway on a disaster preparedness policy. Risks being evaluated span a range of areas, from energy and food security to infrastructure and international transportation. 'Sea ice could affect marine transport; extreme weather could severely affect our capabilities to maintain any agriculture and fisheries, which are central to our economy and food systems,' Johannsson said. 'We cannot afford to wait for definitive, long-term research before acting.'

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