OpenAI Needs At Least $207 Billion By 2030 Just To Keep Losing Money, HSBC Estimates

OpenAI will need to raise at least $207 billion in new funding by 2030 to sustain operations while continuing to lose money, according to a new analysis from HSBC that models the company's cloud computing commitments against projected revenue. The bank's US software team updated its forecasts after OpenAI announced a $250 billion cloud compute rental deal with Microsoft in late October and a $38 billion deal with Amazon days later, bringing total contracted compute capacity to 36 gigawatts.

HSBC projects cumulative rental costs of $792 billion through 2030. Revenue growth remains strong in the model -- the bank expects OpenAI to reach 3 billion users by decade's end, up from roughly 800 million today -- but costs rise in lockstep, meaning OpenAI will still be subsidizing users well into the next decade. If revenue growth disappoints and investors turn cautious, the company's best option might be walking away from some data center commitments.

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